{"id":98118,"date":"2020-03-02T18:57:49","date_gmt":"2020-03-02T13:27:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepubliceconomist.com\/?p=98118"},"modified":"2020-03-02T18:57:51","modified_gmt":"2020-03-02T13:27:51","slug":"are-failed-experiments-publishable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepubliceconomist.com\/?p=98118","title":{"rendered":"Are failed experiments publishable?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Why are publications given so much importance?\nIs it because they convey a telling story about the on-going research(s) in the\nworld? Is it because they act as \u2018validation\u2019 for a researcher? Or is It\nbecause it helps other researchers to use existing literature to develop their\nown research questions? I believe, all these reasons are true, to some extent\nor other. If that the case, then should we trust only the researchers who have a\ngreater number of published articles\/research papers in their names? If that is\nthe case, then we surely are reading only the articles which were able to\nanswer the research questions and ignoring the ones which could not. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, why is it even important to read something\nthat could not even answer a simple research question? Should we ignore the\nstudies which are not directly helpful to another research? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I believe, we should not, because it is equally\nimportant to read about what works and what does not work in an experimental\ndesign. If we do so, then the debate takes a different angle altogether, as we begin\ngiving some importance to the research work which is not very often recognized.\nBut, we see that this is important to consider, as good policy decisions are an\noutcome of a contextual research question, a well-thought research design, useful\nquality data, credible methodology, and compelling results. Sadly, not all such\nresearch outcomes are known to the world, and the most common reason is that\nthe results are not captivating enough. In simpler words, failed experiments\nare not often published.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We discuss two problems relating\nto current phenomena of publication: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Specification searching <\/em>\u2013 selective reporting of analyses\nwithin a particular study;  <\/li>
  2. Publication bias<\/em>: It occurs when the outcome of an\nexperiment or research study influences the decision whether\nto publish or otherwise distribute.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Both problems are deep-rooted, as sometimes researchers try to fudge the\ndata, manipulate the methodologies, or modify the research question to make sure\ntheir work gets recognized. Many research ideas die in infancy when the researchers\nare \u2018unable to reject the null hypothesis\u2019, i.e. they are \u2018unable to obtain\nstatistically significant\u2019 results. What we miss in the picture is that failing\nto reject the null hypothesis is not the same as \u2018accepting the null\nhypothesis\u2019, it only means that the study is unable to provide enough evidence\nfor the alternative hypothesis to be true. During such times, one must\nremember: \u201c There are lies, damn lies, and statistics\u201d. Statistics and\neconometrics are mere tools to analyse, and interpret the data, but not the\nonly tools we should we depend on. Practical significance is of equal, rather\nmore important than statistical significance, because statistically significant\nresults might be impractical : example, the outcome variable is \u2018 female labour\nforce participation\u2019, and one of the explanatory variable \u2018 age squared\u2019 then has\na positive coefficient, and is statistically significant at p-value of less\nthan 5 %, which means that as women age, labour force participation increases.\nThis is counter-intuitive (or atleast context specific), and in such a\nscenario, a researcher has two options : one, keep adding more explanatory\nvariables to get the desired results, or two, stick to the current model, and\ntry to look at the intuitive reasons behind the result (the case of Japan,\nwhere demographics are such, that older people participate more in the\nlabourforce). Let\u2019s consider another scenario, in which \u2018age squared\u2019 has a\npositive coefficient, but is statistically insignificant. In this case, the\nresearcher might try to play with different models to arrive at a \u2018significant\u2019\ncoefficient, which is the problem of \u2018specification searching\u2019. Such scenarios often\nhappen when researchers want to make their work publishable with \u2018compelling\u2019\nresults. Journals do not find such papers interesting enough to publish, and\nthis why most experiments that fail are neither ever heard of, nor studied. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cI have not failed, I have just found 10,000\nways that won\u2019t work\u201d \u2013 Thomas A. Edison. The importance of publishing failed\nexperiments is highly under-rated. There is very little literature on which\nexperiments failed, what methodology did they use, and why did they fail. This\nliterature is imperative to understand what new changes should we look at, and\nwhat new strategies should we follow to get the desired results. Plenty of\ntheories about what works in an experiment, but nobody talks about what happens\non the field when we work, and why we fail to get the desired results. Since\nfailed experiments are not published, we get to read upon only those\n\u2018wonderful\u2019 experiments, that managed to reject the null hypothesis. All the\nresearchers have a common goal: to portray reality of the world. Why is it then\nthe researchers with concrete reality can reach heights in their career, and\nnot the failed ones? Isn\u2019t it essential to look at the reasons behind the\nfailure, the research design, their methodology, their data quality? It is\nequally possible that two researchers with same research question, work using\ntwo different methodologies, and datasets. It is definitely possible that one\nof them gets their work published because he could get \u2018publishable\u2019 results,\nbut had a not-so-reliable methodology, while the other, had incredible\nmethodology, but poor data quality, due to which the undesired results\nappeared. When we do this, we miss out on interesting negative findings, which\nmay help us in asking more relevant questions about research. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    There are organizations like WHO, TESS which have\na dedicated section to publish failed experiments. Recently, a proposal was\nmade in the U.S.A., wherein it was discussed that initially, if an abstract of\nthe research paper of a PhD student is reviewed and accepted, then, the\nfindings will be published, no matter what the outcome of the study is.\nHowever, the implementation of this policy is long due, and till then, we are\nhopeful about minimizing the publication bias and maximizing efforts in\noptimizing research designs and methodologies, and improved data quality, to\nensure unbiased research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cWhether you fear it or\nnot, true disappointment will come, but with disappointment comes clarity,\nconviction, and true originality.\u201d \u2013 Conan O\u2019 Brien.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Why are publications given so much importance? Is it because they convey a telling story about the on-going research(s) in the world? Is it because they act as \u2018validation\u2019 for a researcher? Or is It because it helps other researchers to use existing literature to develop their own research questions?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":98136,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[281],"tags":[282],"class_list":["post-98118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","tag-failed-research-experiments"],"yoast_head":"\nAre failed experiments publishable? - The Public Economist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thepubliceconomist.com\/?p=98118\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Are failed experiments publishable? - The Public Economist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Why are publications given so much importance? 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