{"id":131200,"date":"2020-05-25T21:53:44","date_gmt":"2020-05-25T16:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepubliceconomist.com\/?p=131200"},"modified":"2020-05-25T22:04:22","modified_gmt":"2020-05-25T16:34:22","slug":"not-so-sincerely-bharat-ke-bande","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepubliceconomist.com\/?p=131200","title":{"rendered":"Not so sincerely, Bharat ke bande"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Of late, the country has observed some\ndrama about a widely acknowledged \u201cfiscal package\u201d that made rounds soon after\nPM Modi\u2019s May 12 speech. The intense round of press conferences, spanning a\nperiod of 5-days (including a Sunday!), made it clear that our Finance\nMinister, Ms Sitharaman, was going to roughshod over all the nastiness the\nmedia spewed against the inactivity of her ministry. Unfortunately, even after\nher series of big bang announcements (obviously she does not outrank our PM in\nraising hell on Twitter), the financial markets were underwhelmed and so were\nthe economists of the left. However, instead of delving into the impulses of\neither side, let us don the lens of common sense to deconstruct some of the\nissues, while trying not-to-sound like an eclipsed povertarian<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to identify the situation\u2019s\nuncertainty and peculiarity. Policymakers, especially of the developing world,\nmay try their best to be flexible and adapt to the condition\u2019s challenging\ndemands. However, their inability to take an action must not be confused with\ntheir will to take one. In India, it is mostly the politician\u2019s will that makes\nor breaks her decision. The nature of this pandemic, how-so-ever long-term,\ndemands immediate relief for certain sections of our society, and maybe even a\ncontinuing one. The plight of our out-stationed labourers, now heading back to\ntheir villages, strikes a sharp blow to the bureaucrat\u2019s lack of foresight to\npredict such a messy exodus. Understanding the strengthening grip of this\ncrisis, the government\u2019s late realisation to stimulate or liquidate the economy\nseems more like an after-thought than a perceived one. After all, why, despite\nour bountiful stock of cereals and pulses, couldn\u2019t have the idea sparked to provide\nour stranded folk with immediate subsistence, precluding both outrage and embarrassment?\nAn analysis<\/a> suggests that handing out \u20b97000 per month for a period of 3-months\ncombined with 10 KG of free food grains a month for 6-months will come to cost\nonly 3% of our GDP! This would classify as \u201cstimulus\u201d as it revives demand,\neven though for basic goods and services from those whose propensity to save is\nminimal. Keynes suggested, during World War II, that the only way to fund the\nwar expenses of the Allied forces was through a \u201cforced transference of\npurchasing power\u201d. This meant that the colonial forces had to starve millions\nof people by raising prices more than their wages, leading to the infamous\nBengal Famine. Post-independence, food policy has been designed on the\nunderpinnings of a food-starved nation. However, we are no longer a\nfood-starved nation but a nutrition-starved one. Despite that argument, the\nlong impending reforms in agriculture indeed have been momentous. If\nimplemented the right way, farmers, at their discretion, will be able to decide\nwhat to sow, how much to invest in raw materials, and how much to store,\nthrough forces led by the market, preventing the \u201ccobweb model\u201d of agricultural\nproduce, thus benefitting both the consumers and producers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The disappointment does not end here. With\nstates jumping on the bandwagon of Uttar Pradesh\u2019s termination of several\nlabour laws that protect basic human rights and dignity, making it not only unconstitutional<\/a>,\nunethical and utterly embarrassing, the labourers will not only be forced to\nwork extra hours but will willingly subjugate themselves to the demands of\ntheir unruly employers for earning their daily bread. The argument of the relocation\nof firms from China, following the impasse between the USA and China, is\nill-conceived as compromising on labour productivity (in a labour-rich nation) seems\nrather counterintuitive. Prabhat Patnaik, in his recent column, highlighted<\/a> that \u2013 \u201cInvestment by any firm is\ndetermined by the expected growth of the market, and any change in the\nprofit-margin has no effect upon it. Hence even if there is a wage-cut because\nlabour\u2019s bargaining strength has been undermined by the abrogation of labour\nlaws, that would raise the profit-margin, but not the level of investment in\nany branch, and hence for the corporate sector as a whole.\u201d Therefore,\ndelegitimizing the centuries of struggles for the sake of formality and assumed\ninvestment will mostly be counterproductive and even further reduce employment\nand output. The narrative to strengthen rural demand, where the intensity and\nspread of the infection are lower, has indeed come to the fore as even an\nerstwhile vehemently opposed<\/a> Modi government has decided to\nallocate additional \u20b940,000 crores towards MGNREGA. This is rooted in the\nexpectation that most labourers will not return to their old jobs in the\ncities, thus partly putting the supply of workers in urban establishments,\nwhere it is expected that MSMEs and other cash-strapped institutions will make\nuse of the liquidity to pay for their fixed costs, at risk. This also indicates\nthe state\u2019s unwillingness to budge from the status quo, as instead of running\nreskilling and upskilling programs (in pockets, maintaining norms of physical\ndistancing till the pandemic persists), our labourers will continue to take up\nmenial jobs in their villages, continuing to work at low capacity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a world where investment is\nseverely hit and capital outflows from emerging market economies are at an\nall-time high, not to mention the new normal of discounting the democratic\nproceedings of the parliament, the government of the day is at the tipping\npoint of reducing this crisis to a new kind of (COVID?) nationalism.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

An analysis suggests that handing out \u20b97000 per month for a period of 3-months combined with 10 KG of free food grains a month for 6-months will come to cost only 3% of our GDP! This would classify as \u201cstimulus\u201d as it revives demand, even though for basic goods and services from those whose propensity to save is minimal. Keynes suggested, during World War II, that the only way to fund the war expenses of the Allied forces was through a \u201cforced transference of purchasing power\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":48,"featured_media":131222,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[304,306],"class_list":["post-131200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-indian-economy","tag-covid19","tag-economic-impact-pf-covid19"],"yoast_head":"\nNot so sincerely, Bharat ke bande - The Public Economist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thepubliceconomist.com\/?p=131200\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Not so sincerely, Bharat ke bande - The Public Economist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"An analysis suggests that handing out \u20b97000 per month for a period of 3-months combined with 10 KG of free food grains a month for 6-months will come to cost only 3% of our GDP! This would classify as \u201cstimulus\u201d as it revives demand, even though for basic goods and services from those whose propensity to save is minimal. 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