{"id":110879,"date":"2020-04-02T21:15:55","date_gmt":"2020-04-02T15:45:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepubliceconomist.com\/?p=110879"},"modified":"2020-04-02T21:15:57","modified_gmt":"2020-04-02T15:45:57","slug":"a-case-for-more-tribal-states-a-data-driven-conclusion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepubliceconomist.com\/?p=110879","title":{"rendered":"A Case For More Tribal States: A Data-Driven Conclusion"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In the early 2000s, Jharkhand was\ncarved out of then-Bihar state as a state to provide a voice to the tribal\npopulation who had been routinely ignored and silenced in the politics of\nBihar. But do tribal states serve their purpose and provide for a better future\nof tribals? I sought to find the answer to this question. I decided to see how\nthe HDI varies with the percentage of ST population in a state. The results are\nquite interesting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At first, the overall scatter plot\nlooks something like this. At first glance, it looks like there isn&#8217;t much of a\ncorrelation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"535\" src=\"https:\/\/thepubliceconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/1.jpg\" alt=\"plotf\" class=\"wp-image-110880\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thepubliceconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/1.jpg 680w, https:\/\/thepubliceconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/1-300x236.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>However, something told me the devil\nlied in the details. It turns out indeed at the aggregate level there is not\nmuch of a correlation. However, when we split the data, an interesting divergence\nis seen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first time I split the data for\nthose state with a tribal population percentage less than 35%. As it turned out\nfor all these states there was a&nbsp;<em>moderate negative correlation (pair-wise,\nPearson test) between tribal population and HDI for the 95% confidence interval<\/em>.\nAs I reduced the threshold to 25% and 20%<em>&nbsp;a strong correlation emerged<\/em>.&nbsp;<em>It\nwould be fair to say states with a low tribal population generally do better in\nHDI.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"535\" src=\"https:\/\/thepubliceconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/2.jpg\" alt=\"plot2f\" class=\"wp-image-110881\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thepubliceconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/2.jpg 680w, https:\/\/thepubliceconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/2-300x236.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Then I turned my attention in the\nopposite direction. I decided to test for those states with above 40% tribal\npopulation.&nbsp;<em>As it turned out there was no significant correlation<\/em>.\nI decided to go increase the threshold by nearly 100% and did a correlation\ntest for those states with above 75% tribal population. As it turned out, in\nthis case,&nbsp;<em>there was a strong&nbsp;positive correlation&nbsp;between\nthe tribal population and HDI!<\/em>&nbsp;Knowing that I had gone overboard I\ndecided to test for those states with above 50% tribal population. This time\nagain-<em>&nbsp;the results showed no significant correlation!<\/em>&nbsp;<em>The\nsame repeated for 60%<\/em>, but at&nbsp;<em>70%, the argument again flipped,\nshowing a very strong positive correlation between tribal population and HDI.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The result (at least to me) seemed\ncoherent with what we hear and read about in the news about tribal neglect and\noppression. The seemingly incoherent results for different thresholds made\nperfect sense to me in the following way-<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>It is common\n     knowledge that tribals are the most socially and economically backward\n     population. In most cases their representation in public institutions is\n     limited and their issues ignored.<\/li><li>However, if\n     administrative zones with significant tribal population are created, which\n     is more than 70% tribal population,&nbsp;<em>the baton of power no longer remains among the forward castes.\n     In such a setup, most tribal states have outperformed non-tribal states.\n     When given political and administrative power, tribals have met eye-to-eye\n     with their FC counterparts and in a lot of cases out beaten them too!<\/em><\/li><li>States with\n     tribal population between 20% and 60% are an interesting bunch. These\n     include states of- Arunachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh<a href=\"#_ftn1\">[1]<\/a>,\n     D&amp;N Haveli, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh<a href=\"#_ftn2\">[2]<\/a>,\n     Manipur, Orissa, Sikkim and Tripura<a href=\"#_ftn3\">[3]<\/a>(where\n     Bengalis displaced tribals as the politically empowered group). With the\n     sole exception of Sikkim, none have an HDI above 0.70. Madhya Pradesh and\n     Jharkhand<a href=\"#_ftn4\">[4]<\/a>\n     come near with a score of 0.696 and 0.682. Names of most of these states\n     have come up time and again for tribal and Adivasi protests and the\n     political have been criticised for either ignoring or crushing tribal\n     demands. In most of these states, positions of power have been\n     concentrated in the hands of Forward Castes instead of tribals suggesting\n     a history of neglect for STs.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>India must come up with an\nadministrative set-up where Tribals find voice and are given positions of power\nand roles in running their states and regions. As the data suggests the story\nof tribal backwardness is a story of discrimination, neglect and oppression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Disclaimer: Images and plots\nbelong to author. Use with appropriate citation. <\/em><\/strong><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hindustantimes.com\/editorials\/decoding-tribal-alienation-in-chhattisgarh-ht-editorial\/story-GrtjbrNgk3KkAynhhSE08M.html\">https:\/\/www.hindustantimes.com\/editorials\/decoding-tribal-alienation-in-chhattisgarh-ht-editorial\/story-GrtjbrNgk3KkAynhhSE08M.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref2\">[2]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.news18.com\/news\/india\/cant-they-hear-us-thousands-of-tribals-stage-protest-in-delhi-to-claim-land-under-forest-rights-act-2395647.html\">https:\/\/www.news18.com\/news\/india\/cant-they-hear-us-thousands-of-tribals-stage-protest-in-delhi-to-claim-land-under-forest-rights-act-2395647.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref3\">[3]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northeasttoday.in\/refugee-problems-in-north-east-india\/\">https:\/\/www.northeasttoday.in\/refugee-problems-in-north-east-india\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref4\">[4]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindubusinessline.com\/news\/national\/bjp-has-a-tribal-problem-in-jharkhandepep\/article30141357.ece\">https:\/\/www.thehindubusinessline.com\/news\/national\/bjp-has-a-tribal-problem-in-jharkhandepep\/article30141357.ece<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the early 2000s, Jharkhand was carved out of then-Bihar state as a state to provide a voice to the tribal population who had been routinely ignored and silenced in the politics of Bihar. But do tribal states serve their purpose and provide for a better future of tribals?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":70645,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3,92],"tags":[249,64,288],"class_list":["post-110879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-indian-economy","category-social","tag-the-scheduled-tribes-and-other-traditional-forest-dwellers-recognition-of-forest-rights-act","tag-tribal","tag-tribal-development"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Case For More Tribal States: A Data-Driven Conclusion - The Public Economist<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thepubliceconomist.com\/?p=110879\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Case For More Tribal States: A Data-Driven Conclusion - The Public Economist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the early 2000s, Jharkhand was carved out of then-Bihar state as a state to provide a voice to the tribal population who had been routinely ignored and silenced in the politics of Bihar. 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